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Forecast issued by the Met Office on behalf of UKHSA on Monday, 17, August, 2026 at 10:10

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Overview of hot weather over the next 5 days

A much cloudier and unsettled picture across England is expected this week, with spells of rain moving southeast followed by showers. Temperatures initially a little above average for central and southern parts, but around average across the north. Temperatures trending downward across the south through the week, with almost all of England around average from Wednesday.

Overview of hot weather over the next 6 to 15 days

Likely changeable, with showers giving way to a possible settled spell later in the weekend and early next week, followed by further spells of rain or showers. Temperatures are expected to be largely around average or below, though may recover to a little above average for a time early next week.

Overview of hot weather over the next 16 to 30 days

Low confidence during this period, but climatology most likely with a NW/SE split developing, meaning unsettled and cooler conditions across the northwest and settled conditions more probable in the south and east. The settled weather means further very warm to hot spells are possible.

Region

Probability of reaching low impact threshold in the next 5 days (%)

Probability of reaching low impact threshold in the next 6–15 days (%)

Probability of reaching low impact threshold in the next 16–30 days (%)

General comments on weather

NE

10

20

20

Much cooler than recently. Low impact threshold temperatures unlikely to be breached.

NW

10

20

20

Much cooler than recently. Low impact threshold temperatures unlikely to be breached.

YH

10

20

20

Much cooler than recently. Low impact threshold temperatures unlikely to be breached.

EM

30

30

30

Temperatures falling, but with a chance of reaching Low impact thresholds Monday.

WM

35

30

20

Temperatures falling, but with a chance of reaching Low impact thresholds Monday.

EoE

35

30

30

Temperatures falling, but with a chance of reaching Low impact thresholds Monday or Tuesday.

Lon

40

30

30

Temperatures falling, but with a chance of reaching Low impact thresholds Monday or Tuesday.

SE

40

30

30

Temperatures falling, but with a chance of reaching Low impact thresholds Monday or Tuesday.

SW

40

30

30

Temperatures falling, but with a chance of reaching Low impact thresholds Monday or Tuesday.

NE = North East | NW = North West | YH = Yorkshire and The Humber | EM = East Midlands | WM = West Midlands | EoE = East of England | Lon = London | SE = South East | SW = South West

For further information, please refer to the UKHSA Adverse Weather and Health Plan

All other enquiries can be directed to enquiries@ukhsa.gov.uk